The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released housing finance data for November 2011 this week. The data showed that the number of owner occupier finance commitments (excluding refinances) increased by 2.5% over the month, marking the seventh time out of the last eight months in which they have improved. The flurry of refinancing activity over the past 18 months appears to be abating, with refinance commitments down -0.6% for the month, the second successive month in which they have fallen. The data also revealed that first home buyer activity is increasing. First home buyer finance commitments accounted for 20% of all owner occupier finance commitments and there were 10,136 first home buyer commitments over the month. In percentage terms, it was the highest proportion of first home buyers since February 2010 and in volume terms, it was the greatest number since December 2009. It would appear that interest rate cuts at the start of the month attracted a number of first home buyers in to the market.
Westpac and the Melbourne Institute released the results of the January consumer confidence survey this week. The Consumer Sentiment Index rose by 2.4% over the month to 97.1 points, the result shows that respondents remain more pessimistic than optimistic and it would appear that with the Index below 100 points for consecutive months that interest rate cuts alone have not been enough to improve sentiment. Respondents to the survey are most concerned about the state of their family finances over the last 12 months and the economic conditions over the next 12 months and five years.
The TD Securities-Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge for December 2011 was released this week, preceding the official quarterly results which will be released by the ABS next week. The result showed a 0.5% increase in inflation in December following a -0.1% fall in November and a 0.1% increase in October. According to the Index, inflation has been fairly benign over the quarter, up just 0.4% and the trimmed mean has risen by just 0.2%. Based on these results it appears that the official rate of inflation is likely to be fairly low over the December 2011 quarter once released next week.





