Industry Market Wrap

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released housing finance data for November 2011 this week. The data showed that the number of owner occupier finance commitments (excluding refinances) increased by 2.5% over the month, marking the seventh time out of the last eight months in which they have improved. The flurry of refinancing activity over the past 18 months appears to be abating, with refinance commitments down -0.6% for the month, the second successive month in which they have fallen. The data also revealed that first home buyer activity is increasing. First home buyer finance commitments accounted for 20% of all owner occupier finance commitments and there were 10,136 first home buyer commitments over the month. In percentage terms, it was the highest proportion of first home buyers since February 2010 and in volume terms, it was the greatest number since December 2009. It would appear that interest rate cuts at the start of the month attracted a number of first home buyers in to the market.

Westpac and the Melbourne Institute released the results of the January consumer confidence survey this week. The Consumer Sentiment Index rose by 2.4% over the month to 97.1 points, the result shows that respondents remain more pessimistic than optimistic and it would appear that with the Index below 100 points for consecutive months that interest rate cuts alone have not been enough to improve sentiment. Respondents to the survey are most concerned about the state of their family finances over the last 12 months and the economic conditions over the next 12 months and five years.

The TD Securities-Melbourne Institute Monthly Inflation Gauge for December 2011 was released this week, preceding the official quarterly results which will be released by the ABS next week. The result showed a 0.5% increase in inflation in December following a -0.1% fall in November and a 0.1% increase in October. According to the Index, inflation has been fairly benign over the quarter, up just 0.4% and the trimmed mean has risen by just 0.2%. Based on these results it appears that the official rate of inflation is likely to be fairly low over the December 2011 quarter once released next week.

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RP Data Equity Report

 September Quarter, 2011

Please note that the September 2011 Quarter Equity Report (RRP $2,500) is exclusive to our RP Data subscribers only and cannot be republished without the consent and permission from RP Data.

The highlights of the report are:

Strong growth in home values over the recent growth cycle is why most regions have seen significant levels of equity accumulation.
Over the five years to September 2011, capital city home values increased by around 28 per cent.
Australian housing markets recorded value declines recently with capital city home values down 3.3 per cent from their October 2010 peak to September 2011.
4.9 per cent of all Australian homes are currently valued at less than purchase price; the negative equity figure has risen from 3.7 per cent at the end of the last quarter.
Approximately 43 per cent of homes are worth more than twice the original purchase price; down from close to 45 per cent last quarter.
Properties in Victoria, and more particularly Melbourne, tend to be owned longer.
Properties in Queensland and South Australia have higher turnover rates; therefore equity levels in these states tend to be lower lower than in other states.
Far North Queensland & the Gold and Sunshine Coasts have the highest instances of negative equity at 20.2%, 14.0% and 13.5% respectively.
Western Australia’s Lower Great Southern and South West and South Eastern Western Australia are showing high levels of negative equity.
The highest proportion of homes that are now worth at least double their initial purchase price is typically either regional and non-coastal, or capital city markets.
Capital cities have enjoyed long-term value appreciation and have proven to be less susceptible to ongoing value falls than certain non-capital city markets.

Click HERE to read full report!

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Rate cut triggers first rise in home values since December ’10

30 December 2011

RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index Release

In seasonally-adjusted terms, Australia’s capital city home values rose by 0.1 per cent in November, which was the first increase since December 2010. Regional house values recorded a 0.3 per cent (s.a.) rise in November, which was also the biggest increase since December 2010.

Based on around 312,000 sales over the first 11 months of 2011, the market-leading RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index recorded increases in home values across both capital city and regional markets in the month of November following the RBA’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage points.

In seasonally-adjusted terms, capital city home values ground-out a modest 0.1 per cent gain (-0.2 per cent raw) in November. House values across Australia’s non-capital city or ‘regional’ markets, which account for about 40 per cent of all homes by number, also rose by 0.3 per cent in seasonally adjusted terms (-0.1 per cent raw).

Rismark’s director, Christopher Joye, commented, “For Australia’s capital city and regional markets, this was the single best monthly result since December 2010, and augurs well for housing activity during the first quarter of 2012, which we project will rebound solidly. The best proxy for housing demand—the number of new home loans approved for purchasing established properties—has risen robustly every month since its nadir in March.”

The November result has helped improve the Australian housing market’s year-to-date performance. Whereas in October RP Data-Rismark reported that capital city dwelling values had declined by four per cent in the first 10 months of 2011, the November year-to-date index change is now just -3.7 per cent (seasonally-adjusted). In actual raw terms, Australian capital city dwelling values have only declined by -2.8 per cent in the first 11 months of 2011.

Regional markets have performed even better. Over the year to November 2011, regional house values are only off by -2.6 per cent in raw terms (or -2.8 per cent seasonally-adjusted). Including gross rents, the total return realised by investors in capital city property remained positive in 2011 at +1.2 per cent.

According to RP Data’s Senior Research Analyst, Cameron Kusher, there remains significant diversity across capital city housing markets.

“Although home values have fallen across each capital city, Sydney and Canberra have been the most resilient with dwelling values off just -0.5 per cent (s.a.) and -1.6 per cent (s.a.) over the year, respectively” Mr Kusher said.

He continued, “On the other hand, Brisbane and Melbourne home values have recorded total declines of -7.0 per cent (s.a.) and -5.6 per cent (s.a.), respectively.”

“In the month of November, Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Canberra produced flat-to-positive capital gains following the RBA rate cut. In contrast, home values in Adelaide, Brisbane and Darwin softened further,” Mr Kusher said.

Rismark director, Christopher Joye added, “The November result is consistent with our forecasts that Australia’s housing market will respond much more quickly to the RBA’s November and December cuts than many analysts expect. Over 90 per cent of all Australian home loans are fully variable rate, and lenders have passed on most of the 0.50 percentage points worth of RBA rate cuts during the final two months of the year. Borrowers can now get fixed-rate loans for around 5.9 per cent and discounted variable rate loans as low as 6.14 per cent. As Australia’s most interest rate sensitive sector, the housing market will be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the RBA’s munificence alongside consumer spending. We expect to see house prices rising again in 2012.”

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Times Are Changing

The last 10 years has seen a remarkable shift in the way people shop for property. Although the internet has been with us for longer than this period it is only since the early 2000’s that the general public have really taken hold of what this media is capable of. As you can see by the following pictures the overwhelming majority of purchasers are now doing their homework on the internet, therefore only contacting an agent once they have browsed the stock list online. With the massive saving of time and cost to real estate agents in today’s market there are questions that must be asked.

Can real estate agents really still justify the commissions they charge?
Are inflated sale commissions simply paying for expensive printed media ads to generate listing enquiry for agents?
Do newspapers and property magazines really still sell enough real estate to justify the massive publishing cost? 

The information below is readily available to the general public for FREE so feel free to check it out at http://www.google.com/trends 

Looking at the chart above it is easy to see what form of media will give your property the most exposure and in turn bang for buck! We have also run a comparison below of some of the property websites available for the promotion of your property. I’m confident that after viewing this information you will form a firm opinion about where your property should be promoted. Your property will be subject to unrivalled exposure through www.realestate.com.au 

In Summary
By using the latest technology available, your real estate agent should be able to keep your commissions to a more reasonable level than the industry average and still expose your property where it will almost certainly be seen by an overwhelming majority of the market.

Information collated by CPC Property Sales

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Industry Market Wrap

On Melbourne Cup Day, the Reserve Bank (RBA) delivered the first change to official interest rates in 12 months, reducing official cash rate to 4.5% from 4.75%. In their statement following the decision, the RBA Board stated: ‘Over the past year, the Board has maintained a mildly restrictive stance of monetary policy, in view of its concerns about inflation. With overall growth moderate, inflation now likely to be close to target and confidence subdued outside the resources sector, the Board concluded that a more neutral stance of monetary policy would now be consistent with achieving sustainable growth and 2–3 per cent inflation over time.’ Most home owners are likely to be happy about this decision with the average standard variable mortgage rate now recorded at 7.55%.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released building approvals data this week for September. Following a 10.7% jump in the month of August, approvals fell by -13.6% in September. After falling -0.5% in the previous month, private sector house approvals rose by 1.1% in September. Conversely, following a 32.8% increase last month, the more volatile unit approvals fell by -30.7%. Overall, total building approvals in September 2011 were -12.0% lower than 12 months ago highlighting the ongoing weakness in the new home market.

The RBA released lending credit aggregates last week and it showed that growth in housing credit remained fairly benign. Total housing credit increased by 5.7% over the 12 months to September 2011 with owner occupier housing credit rising by 6.1% and investor housing credit up just 4.6%. Although both measures have increased at a rate above annual inflation (3.5%), it is clear that growth in housing credit is fairly limited at this time.

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Industry Market Wrap

On Tuesday of this week the Reserve Bank (RBA) decided to keep official interest rates on hold at 4.75%. Official interest rates have now remained on hold since November 2010 and have increased just once in the last 17 months making the current interest rate environment the most stable we have seen for five years. The Reserve Bank’s media release following the rates decision suggests that the official cash rate is likely to remain stable over the coming months, however financial markets are continuing to price in substantial rate cuts.

The National Accounts were also released this week by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 1.2% during the June 2011 quarter after falling by -0.9% over the March 2011 quarter. On an annual basis GDP increased by 1.4% over the 12 months to June 2011. The data also revealed that the net household savings ratio over the quarter remained high at 10.5% however, it fell from 11.7% in the March 2011 quarter. Another highlight was the disposable incomes data which reveals that income growth is slowing. After disposable incomes grew by 5.4% over the 12 months to March 2011, the most recent data shows a growth rate now tracking below inflation, up by just 2.4% over the year to June 2011.

Housing finance data was also released by the ABS this week and it showed that the number of owner occupier finance commitments increased by 1.0% over the month of July 2011 and increased by 5.0% over the year. The total value of owner occupier housing finance commitments increased by 1.4% over the month and by 5.9% over the year and the total value of investment finance commitments increased by 1.9% over the month however, investor loans were down -9.0% over the year.

The number of new properties advertised for sale over the 4 weeks to 4 September 2011 was 3.2% higher than at the same time last year and across the combined capital cities new listings were -0.5% lower. The total number of properties advertised for sale nationally over the past 4 weeks was 3.9% higher than it was over the 4 weeks to 28 August. Across the combined capital cities, total listings increased by 4.1% over the week. Total listings are now 34.6% higher than they were at the same time last year nationally and 33.3% higher across the combined capital cities.

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Industry Market Wrap

The RP Data-Rismark Home Value Index results for July 2011 were released this week. On a seasonally adjusted basis, home values across the combined capital cities fell by -0.6% over the month, -1.5% over the quarter and -2.9% over the year. On an annual basis, only Canberra (1.9%) and Sydney (0.5%) have recorded positive value growth. On the other hand, Brisbane (-6.6%), Perth (-6.3%), Adelaide (-4.5%) and Melbourne (-4.3%) have all recorded substantial falls over the year.

Building approvals data released this week by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed continued weakness across private sector approvals, however a dramatic surge in public sector approvals saw the overall figure increase by 1.0% over the month Private sector approvals fell by -0.6% whereas public sector approvals increased by 77.3%. Over the year, total building approvals are down by -15.0%.

The ABS’ bi-annual review of household income and income distribution showed that during the 2009/10 financial year, real household incomes fell for the first time in 14 years. When adjusted for inflation, household disposable incomes fell from $859/week in 2007/08 to $848/week in 2009/10. This provides some hint as to why retail trade is so poor, property sales volumes are so low and consumer confidence is weak. If households have a lower disposable income but an equal or higher level of debt, there is less money left over to spend.

Read More Here!

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Why a second GFC could be good for your investment property

European debt, American recession and a looming second global financial crisis (GFC). Sounds familiar, doesn’t it? Well, according to Understand Property, another economic slump around the world is potentially a good thing for your investment property.

This is because another GFC could actually send investors scurrying to the relative safety of housing, which is nowhere near as volatile as other forms of investment.

Another reason that many people haven’t yet considered as to why Australia stands to benefit is because of debt in Europe.

“People have an option not available to governments to solve a crisis – they can leave,” Understand Property says.

“It’s happened before and it will happen again and if the situation deteriorates in Europe, as it probably will, we may once again throw open our nation’s doors to a new wave of European migration.

“Thousands of disgruntled Spaniards, Irish, Portuguese, Italians and Greeks will seek their fortunes here. Not only is our economy insulated from Eurozone woes by being increasingly reliant on Asian economic fortunes, the arrival of a new wave of migrants will generate economic growth and just as our history shows, the housing market will boom for investors in the areas where they choose to settle.”

The obvious choices would be capital cities, but perhaps they could also find employment in our regional areas. And the mass migration could occur sooner, rather than later.

Understand Property says the US is printing more money to inflate itself out of debt, but Europe doesn’t have the same choice, because of the Euro. So if another GFC occurs, it will hit Europe much harder.

“When the smaller countries joined the Eurozone, they traded in their Drachmas, Escudos and Pesetas for Euros. They lost the ability to print money they now need to buy their way out of trouble.

“The only option left for the debt ridden nations of the Eurozone is extreme belt tightening. It will get worse before it gets better and could result in the break-up of the entire EU system, with political turmoil, severe depression and high unemployment in the worst hit countries.”

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Is This the Worlds Smallest Unit?

THERE’S small and then there’s this apartment – a woman has spent three years living in a 8.3 square metre room in New York’s Upper West Side – so tiny the ceiling is less than 60 centimetres from her face when she sleeps.

The bathroom is so cramped that Felice Cohen has to sit on her side to use the toilet.

She told the Daily Mail the apartment felt so cramped on the first night she slept there, she suffered a panic attack.

However, three years on Ms Cohen says it’s been worth it, with her rent coming in at just $US700 ($672), while her neighbours pay around $US3000 ($2880) for a small apartment to live in the exclusive Manhattan enclave.

“I wanted to live in Manhattan, but I didn’t want it to take all my money and found this place through a friend,” said Ms Cohen.

“It’s a great location, its right near Central Park.”

Watch YouTube Version Here – http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZSdrtEqcHU&feature=player_embedded


Ms Cohen works as a personal organiser and quickly put her professional skills to the test in making the tiny sliver of space liveable. First she installed a desk with draws above and then removed the wardrobe doors and replaced them with a thin curtain. She stores fruit in a toaster oven, owns just two plates, one knife, fork and spoon and has cut down on personal items like clothing.

There is no kitchen but Ms Cohen has a hot pot and a small fridge to compensate.

“I guess I just think that people have too much space and so much stuff. I grew up in a house with two walk-in closets that are about as big as my entire apartment is now, but I’ve cut down,” she said.

“How much stuff do we really need? It’s less than you think.”

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Latest Auction Clearance Rates – Australia

http://www.rs.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rsearch?a=ars

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